tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-205661102024-03-18T21:21:31.245-06:00atypicalalbertanRarely spotted by the casual observer, the atypicalalbertan blends in well with his surroundings. His calls are not common amongst the sounds in the Albertan wilderness. But it is his fresh and social-minded outlook on life which makes him an asset to his community.
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The views expressed here by atypicalalbertan are in no way intended to represent the views of his employer.Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.comBlogger79125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-74288439298044516932014-09-14T18:23:00.001-06:002014-09-14T18:23:08.436-06:00New Blog LocationHi,<br />
<br />
Thanks for reading my blog. Please join me at my new location: <a href="http://www.atypicalalbertan.ca/">www.atypicalalbertan.ca</a>.<br />
<br />
Cheers,<br />
<br />
JonathanAtypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-35950648009505989542013-06-27T20:57:00.000-06:002013-06-27T20:57:01.584-06:00Saving for a rainy dayThe tragedy of recent historic flooding in Southern Alberta has had a profound impact on us. As an Edmontonian who spends a good deal of time in Calgary, my heart goes out to those who have been affected. Encouragingly, the Alberta spirit lives on and Calgarians will demonstrate resiliency as the rest of us demonstrate high levels of empathy and community through giving in the ways that are available to us. I have to give big kudos to Mayor Naheed Nenshi, Premier Alison Redford, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and all three levels of government who have been absolutely stellar in their response. These tragedies and struggles do emphasize the important role of government in acting as the vehicle through which we take collective action and in the value of the public service and public servants.<br />
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Recently, <a href="http://alberta.ca/NewsFrame.cfm?ReleaseID=/acn/201306/344137766E0BF-A7CD-B199-874D69FABED2753F.html">the Redford government announced</a> that it would pledge an initial and immediate $1 Billion in aid with more to come. They also said that in doing this, the priority of a balanced budget would be set aside. They should be applauded for doing the right thing. We count on government (ie our neighbours) to be there for us on rainy days. But, talk of a balanced budget in this context made me think of where this money will come from, could come from and should come from. Wouldn't it be nice if we had a rainy day fund for such unforeseen instances?</div>
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Oh?! We do???</div>
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That's right. We have the <a href="http://www.finance.alberta.ca/business/ahstf/faqs.html">Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund</a> which sits at $16.8 billion. This is good. It could come in handy here, but with <a href="http://globalnews.ca/news/671316/alberta-floods-preliminary-costs-mount-as-real-estate-forecast-looms/">BMO<span style="-webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); font-family: '.HelveticaNeueUI'; font-size: 15px; line-height: 19px; white-space: nowrap;"> </span>estimating</a> the costs of recovery in the $3-$5 billion range it would make a considerable dent in the fund. Unfortunately, the fund has not grown substantially in decades. The <a href="http://www.finance.alberta.ca/business/ahstf/annual-reports/2013/Heritage-Fund-2012-13-Annual-Report.pdf">last systematic investment</a> into the fund was made in 1987 and while the fund has generated $33.4 billion in total income, $34.6 billion has been transferred out of it largely to fund general programs. </div>
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The Alberta fiscal formula is fundamentally flawed. <a href="http://www.finance.alberta.ca/whatsnew/newsrel/2013/2013-0627-Annual-Reports-Fiscal-Tables.pdf">Last year</a> the government brought in $38.6 billion in revenues. Of that, $7.6 billion came from selling off non-renewable resources and $2.5 billion came from siphoning off investment earnings. At the same time they still spent $2.8 billion more than they raised which was drained out of another smaller more temporary rainy day fund, the Sustainability Fund. </div>
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<br /></div>
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This all becomes a critical issue when you account for the fact that Alberta is the lowest taxed jurisdiction in Canada and could raise <a href="http://www.finance.alberta.ca/publications/annual_repts/govt/ganrep13/goa-2012-13-annual-report-executive-summary.pdf">$11 billion more</a> in taxes and maintain the lowest tax regime in the country. </div>
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In simple terms, we are selling off the farm and dipping into our RRSPs in order to pay the bills just so we can take more time off work. </div>
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As much as some would say debt is stealing from future generations, what we are doing amounts to grand larceny fraud against our great grandchildren. They should have a stake in both our non-renewable resources and our savings and in the meantime we should continue to contribute by paying our fair share. </div>
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A fiscal prudent strategy would look like this. Instead of selling off non-renewable resources to fund programs we should treat it like a transfer from fixed assets to liquid but restricted assets. In other words, put all non-renewable resource revenue into the Heritage Fund. We should quit the vacation from responsibility and increase our taxes to the point where we collect the $11 billion more in revenue while maintaining our tax advantage. We should then quit using interest to fund general programs and instead use it for an endowment fund to help diversify our economy and train our people for the day the oil is gone. </div>
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And when catastrophic flooding or fires occur again we sensibly and responsibly use the rainy day fund to pay for recovery... without guilt or regret because that is what we planned for all along. </div>
Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com0Alberta, Canada53.9332706 -116.576503534.7664286 -157.8850975 73.1001126 -75.2679095tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-13932246965599959542012-05-03T21:28:00.000-06:002012-05-03T21:28:59.915-06:00Cabinet SpeculationHey, I'm <a href="http://atypicalalbertan.blogspot.ca/2012/04/election-predictions-and-ridings-to.html">awful at predictions</a>, but why not speculate on cabinet postings.<br />
<br />
Premier Alison Redford has discussed the possibility of some repositioning of portfolios and the possibility of a downsize to cabinet. It is quite likely that we will see 20 ministers in the cabinet including the Premier. As far as responsibility juggling, we could see something done that would help coordinate seniors housing options which is currently spread over three ministries: human services, health and seniors. We might also see a combination of Tourism, Parks and Recreation with Culture and Community Spirit as a way to downsize cabinet by combining some smaller ministries that are justifiably related. <br />
<br />
But people tend to be more concerned about who will be in cabinet and so let's get to that.<br />
<br />
First off, let's look at ministers that will definitely remain in cabinet:<br />
<ul>
<li><b>Alison Redford (Calgary-Elbow) </b>will be Premier.</li>
<li><b>Doug Horner (Spruce Grove-St. Albert) </b>is competent and popular. He will remain in cabinet and he is likely to remain as deputy premier.</li>
<li><b>Dave Hancock (Edmonton-Whitemud)</b> will surely continue in his role developing the new Human Services ministry.</li>
<li><b>Greg Weadick (Lethbridge-West)</b> will remain in cabinet since Redford will need representation from South of Calgary.</li>
<li><b>Cal Dallas (Red Deer North)</b> will likely be returned to cabinet to bring representation to central Alberta. He is also likely to be given the opportunity to continue building his new ministry of Intergovernmental, International and Aboriginal Relations.</li>
<li><b>Diana McQueen (Drayton Valley-Devon)</b> has proven to be competent and should be returned to cabinet. It is quite likely that she may also be promoted. Energy might be a good fit for this oil patch area representative. </li>
<li><b>Verlyn Olson (Wetaskiwin-Camrose)</b> is also quite competent and widely respected, so it is likely he will remain in cabinet and as justice minister.</li>
<li><b>Frank Oberle (Peace River)</b> will bring some northern representation, as will</li>
<li><b>George Vanderburg (Whitecourt-Ste Anne)</b> brings rural representation and could head up realignment of housing services for seniors.</li>
<li><b>Manmeet Bhullar (Calgary Greenway)</b> proved himself as a junior minister and will help represent cultural diversity in the new government. Look for him to be promoted.</li>
</ul>
Secondly, which newcomers are likely to be added into the mix:<br />
<ul>
<li><b>Bridget Pastoor (Lethbridge East)</b> will be added to cabinet to bring as much southern representation as is possible.</li>
<li><b>Ken Hughes (Calgary-West)</b> was handpicked by Redford to run and as former Alberta Health Services chair will surely be added to the inner circle.</li>
<li><b>Donna Kennedy-Glans (Calgary-Varsity) </b>is also a friend of Redford's going back to the Joe Clark days. She represents the new brand of Progressive Conservatism that the party is trying to brand itself as. Her <a href="http://integritybridges.com/donna-kennedy-glans/">work around integrity</a> will be valued by this partially stained PC government.</li>
<li><b>Don Scott (Fort McMurray-Conklin) </b>will likely be included as one of the Fort McMurray MLAs will need to be added to cabinet and he seems to be the more experienced of the two.</li>
<li>Other newcomers that could get cabinet postings include Christine Cusanelli (Calgary-Currie), Ron Casey (Banff-Cochrane), David Dorward (Edmonton-Gold Bar) and Sandra Jansen (Calgary-North West).</li>
<li>Alana DeLong (Calgary-Bow), Naresh Bhardwaj (Edmonton-Ellerslie) and Janice Sarich (Edmonton-Decore) are sophomore MLAs that could get a bump to cabinet.</li>
</ul>
Finally, experience is likely to come from these ministers who are likely to get reappointed, but bumps in their last files may provide uncertainty around their placement:<br />
<ul>
<li><b>Doug Griffiths (Battle River-Wainright)</b> proved popular on the leadership trail especially amongst progressives, but his <a href="http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Griffiths+Sloan+over+funding+allegations/6161201/story.html">spat</a> with AUMA chair Linda Sloan could cost him.</li>
<li><b>Thomas Lukaszuk (Edmonton-Castledowns)</b> is a very strong messenger and has proven himself as loyal to the premier, but <a href="http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/education/Education+could+spur+first+major+Tory+Wildrose+clash/6526418/story.html">problems with passing the Education Act</a> could jeopardize his reappointment.</li>
<li><b>Fred Horne (Edmonton-Rutherford)</b> tried hard but wasn't fully able to bring confidence to one of the most important portfolios in cabinet. He will likely be reinstated to cabinet at a lower posting.</li>
<li>Jonathan Denis (Calgary-Acadia), Jeff Johnson (Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater) and Heather Klimchuk (Edmonton-Glenora) have no points against them, but haven't made a big splash either. They could go if Redford has other people in mind for cabinet.</li>
</ul>
And finally, since I am not afraid of being proven wrong, here is a firm estimate of people and positions from my point of view. I am certain there will be some restructuring, but I will place people into the old set of portfolios anyway.<br />
<br />
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Alison Redford
</td>
<td>Premier
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Doug Horner
</td>
<td>Deputy Premier, Treasury Board
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dave Hancock
</td>
<td>Human Services, House Leader
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Donna Kennedy-Glans
</td>
<td>Energy
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Verlyn Olson
</td>
<td>Justice
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ken Hughes
</td>
<td>Health
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Thomas Lukaszuk
</td>
<td>Finance
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Fred Horne
</td>
<td>Education
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Greg Weadick
</td>
<td>Advanced Education
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bridget Pastoor
</td>
<td>Agriculture
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Cal Dallas
</td>
<td>Intergovernmental Affairs
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Doug Griffiths
</td>
<td>Municipal Affairs
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Diana McQueen
</td>
<td>Environment
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Don Scott
</td>
<td>Transportation
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jonathan Denis
</td>
<td>Public Security / Solicitor General
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Frank Oberle
</td>
<td>Sustainable Resources Development
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>George Vanderburg
</td>
<td>Seniors
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jeff Johnson
</td>
<td>Infrastructure
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Manmeet Bhullar
</td>
<td>Service Alberta
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sandra Jansen
</td>
<td>Culture
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Naresh Bhardwaj
</td>
<td>Tourism
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-77837085543060181622012-04-26T15:16:00.000-06:002012-04-26T15:28:23.819-06:00Wildrose Voters got Cold FeetIn the days after Alberta's engaging general election for the 28th legislature, everyone is talking about the polls - specifically how wrong they were. And while they did not accurately predict the outcome of the election, it is hard to suggest that the methodology was wrong. The polls, regardless of method employed, were pretty consistent with each other - particularly in the last week. If you have a large number of samples that are reinforcing each other, it is likely that the have a good sense of the question being asked and people's honest opinions on the matter. Let's take a closer look at the numbers.<br />
<br />
Most of the polls were reporting percentages based on decided voters, including voters who indicate which way they are leading. A few of the polls reported on the number of undecided voters and where reported that number was somewhere between 16 and 30 per cent. For sake of analysis, let's make a few assumptions and look at the numbers. Assumptions:<br />
<ul>
<li>There are 2,265,000 eligible voters in Alberta.</li>
<li>20% of polled voters were undecided (5 polls that reported undecided percentage reported: 16, 17, 18, 24 and 30% undecided).</li>
<li><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2012#Opinion_polls">Polls</a> in the last week showed around the following percentages for decided voters: 41% (WRP), 33% (PC), 11% (Lib), 11% (NDP).</li>
</ul>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>WRP</td>
<td>PC</td>
<td>Lib</td>
<td>NDP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2012 Projected Voters
</td>
<td>742920</td>
<td>597960</td>
<td>199320</td>
<td>199320</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2012 Actual Voters
</td>
<td>442429</td>
<td>567060</td>
<td>127645</td>
<td>126752</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Retention
</td>
<td>60%</td>
<td>95%</td>
<td>64%</td>
<td>64%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
If you assume that people generally don't lie to pollsters, you have to assume that something happened between the pollsters phone call at home and the poll booth. While the PCs retained 95% of voters who told pollsters they would vote PC, the Wildrose only retained 60%. <br />
<br />
There is an old adage that parties don't get elected to office as much as other parties are thrown out of office. This would be very appropriate for Alberta. In order to change government, you typically need a high <a href="http://www.abll.ca/tables/Election_History/Voter_Turnout">voter turnout</a>. In 1921 the United Farmers were elected with 75% voter turnout; in 1935, when the Social Credit was swept into office, turnout was 82%; In 1971, when the PCs were swept in, turnout was 72%. Estimates for Monday's election are putting turnout at around 57%. In order to toss out the governing Conservatives, the Wildrose would need to get about 40% of votes with a turnout of over 70% - they would need about 634,000 votes. Enough people told pollsters they would vote Wildrose, but not enough did.<br />
Essentially what happened is a big chunk of potential Wildrose voters got cold feet.<br />
<br />
Actually, the wedding analogy is pretty apt here. For the most part if a wedding leads to a successful marriage it is because the couple knows each other well, they have dated for a while, they were likely engaged for a while and as time went on the commitment towards getting married grows and solidifies. Alternately, sometimes a nice conservative man meets a young attractive energetic young lady, they quickly fall in love, think the world of each other, get engaged and 28 days later when the wedding is about to start, and the man has had a chance to learn a bit more about his lover, he wonders whether he's making the right choice. <br />
Alberta was tying on the patent leather shoes and figuring out how to tie up the bow tie when it said to itself, "Can we make this work if she doesn't believe in climate change? What else don't I know about her?"<br />
<br />
There is no doubt that fear led to the collapse: A number of people who said they would vote Wildrose stayed home, a number went back to date the PCs a bit longer. Also a number of people who said they would vote Liberal or NDP ended up at the ballot box switching to the PCs. Alternately, PC supporters were more motivated to get to the polls, they feared the chance that they might lose grip on the province (especially to a <em>radical</em> WRP) and they got out to vote.<br />
<br />
The WRP only retained 60% of voters who told pollsters they would vote WRP. There are three main reasons for this (most of which can be described as cold feet): anger with the PCs was not as big as expected and people stayed home; large poll numbers made people feel complacent and they stayed home; and people who were less engaged (less likely to vote) were inclined to tell pollsters they would vote WRP because of the early hype. This drop of 300,000 WRP supporters was the biggest factor in the PC win.<br />
<br />
Another interesting trend is apparent when the bulk numbers from 2012 are compared to 2008:<br />
<br />
<table>
<tbody cellspace="10%">
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>WRP</td>
<td>PC</td>
<td>Lib</td>
<td>NDP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2008 Votes
</td>
<td>64407</td>
<td>501063</td>
<td>251158</td>
<td>80578</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2012 Votes
</td>
<td>442429</td>
<td>567060</td>
<td>127645</td>
<td>126752</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Difference
</td>
<td>+378022</td>
<td>+65997</td>
<td>-123513</td>
<td>+46174</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
From this analysis, it is fascinating to see how every party was able to gain supporters with the exception of the Liberal party. While overall participation grew by 366,000 voters, It would be silly to suggest that WRP support came entirely from new voters. While some new voters would vote WRP, they gained most of their votes at the PCs expense. While the PCs lost a chunk of voters to the WRP, they would have picked up a lot of new voters and a lot of voters from the Liberals. Finally, the NDP base is relatively stable (in Alberta they are used to losing ridings and don't mind voting NDP anyway). They would have gained some voters in their stronger ridings from the Liberals and they would have attracted some new voters. The growth in raw vote support suggests that the WRP, PC and NDP can all claim some victory in this election.<br />
<br />
There is a bit of data here and a lot of speculation, so I would love to hear your comments.Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-51876086518290562502012-04-23T10:57:00.000-06:002012-04-23T10:57:44.843-06:00Election Predictions and Ridings to WatchToday is election day in Alberta and quite a day it will be. I am guaranteed to be glued to my television screen and interweb module well into the wee hours of the morning. I suspect that it will be late before we know who the premier will be and whether they will have a majority or minority government. I pity the people who will have to make projections for the media outlets. They will juggle the balance between trying to be first to call the election, while ensuring that their call is not a wrong call.<br />
<br />
Nonetheless, for funsies, I am prepared to make a prediction:<br />
<ul>
<li>Wildrose - 45 seats</li>
<li>PC - 36 seats</li>
<li>NDP - 4 seats</li>
<li>Liberal - 2 seats</li>
</ul>
While I have ended up at nearly the same result as Eric at threehundredeight.com, I feel it is important to note that I have done so by crunching my own numbers using 2008 results and current poll projections. The totals are nearly the same, but the ridings that make up the totals are different.<br />
<br />
Having said that, there are a few things that I will be watching closely on election night.<br />
<br />
1. Bellwether Ridings - ridings where early results will help determine the scope of the election. Wildrose wins in these close Calgary ridings will help to indicate the mood of Calgarians for change. Similarly, if PC can hold these two close central Alberta ridings, it should indicate that rural Albertans might be less ready to risk it with the Wildrose. <br />
<ul>
<li>Calgary Cross</li>
<li>Calgary Currie</li>
<li>Calgary East</li>
<li>Calgary Foothills</li>
<li>Lacombe Ponoka</li>
<li>Wetaskiwin Camrose </li>
</ul>
2. Other interesting ridings<br />
<ul>
<li>Edmonton Centre - Everyone is talking about Glenora, but I think it is safer for the incumbent than this seat which is as likely to go PC or NDP as opposed to staying with Liberal Laurie Blakeman. I say Blakeman stays.</li>
<li>West Yellowhead - Should be a safe PC riding, but has had a strong showing for the NDP in the past. If Alberta party leader Glenn Taylor can convince labour supports to vote for him, he could steal the riding. My prediction is for Robin Campbell.</li>
<li>Calgary Elbow - Having been the home of former Premier Ralph Klein, Elbow must be getting accustomed to hosting the premier. Will their member be Premier, leader of the opposition or a giant killer in a new Wildrose government? I say Redford holds.</li>
<li>Edmonton Glenora - Of course, this one is being dubbed as the five way race so everyone will be keeping an eye on it. I believe that Klimchuk will be able to hold it and it won't be as close as everyone is anticipating.</li>
<li>Edmonton Meadowlark - It is hard to say how many voters who voted for Raj Sherman as a PC will stick with him as a Liberal, but floor crossers are rarely punished in Alberta and he will have the advantage of being a party leader. I say Sherman holds.</li>
<li>Edmonton Riverview and Edmonton GoldBar - Both ridings were previous Liberal strongholds, but popular MLAs Taft and MacDonald are not running. The NDP is making big pushes in both ridings, but progressive voters might coalesce around the PCs to stave off the Wildrose. I'm picking PC in both ridings.</li>
<li>Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville - People here loved Ed Stelmach, some will backlash against the Tories for turfing him and reward the Wildrose who have fielded a strong candidate in Shannon Stubbs (seeking to beat the Premier at home), but others will see the Wildrose as the enemy that got rid of their guy and stay true blue. I think Fenske will keep the riding PC.</li>
</ul>
We shall check back on Tuesday to see how these predictions hold up.Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-19578264252324669972012-04-22T12:01:00.000-06:002012-04-22T12:01:01.619-06:00Will recall remain a priority for a Wildrose government?Democratic reform is a popular part of opposition party platforms, especially for populist parties who are trying to toss out a long standing party in power that is seen to have accountability issues. And so it goes for the 2012 Alberta general election. The Wildrose party is attempting to push aside the Progressive Conservatives whom have governed this province for over 41 years.<br />
<br />
The Wildrose is sending the message that 40 years is enough and advancing rhetoric <a href="http://www.wildrose.ca/pledge/alberta-accountability-act/">like</a>, "The politics of entitlement and corruption must be replaced by a culture
of accountability where doing what’s right is the rule, not the
exception."<br />
<br />
Quite often however, a party that runs on a platform of democratic reform is slow to bring in the reforms once they gain power. The Reform/Conservative party at the federal level is a good example of this. They too proposed ideas like citizen initiatied referenda, recall legislation, a triple-e senate and free votes. Yet after more than 6 years in office, Prime Minister Harper has made little substantial progress on any of these concepts.<br />
<br />
These ideas make for good policies to run on in an effort to unseat a ruling party, but they have no value for the party that is in power. And so, when a party assumes office, they have little impetus to change the system that got them there.<br />
<br />
With many pundits predicting either a minority government or slim Wildrose majority, some real considerable action is likely to occur after the election. The website <a href="http://threehundredeight.com/">threehundredeight.com</a> is predicting that the Wildrose party will form a majority government by two seats (winning 45/87 seats). I have come to the same conclusion based on independent analysis. This situation will leave the results from election day in a tenuous position. The speaker election and potential floor crossings mean that the seat count on election night won't necessarily represent the makeup of the legislature for too long.<br />
<br />
Some important questions arise. <br />
<br />
Would a Wildrose government in minority or slim majority position risk their potential tenuous hold on the legislature by carrying through with democratic reforms like free votes or recall? Could the Wildrose Accountability Act pledge be the first flip-flop for Danielle Smith? If Wildrose does carry through with the legislation, how long will it take for a "bozo eruption" to occur inspiring a recall effort against an MLA elected by a small margin to begin with?Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-50539862635038881352012-04-15T12:34:00.000-06:002012-04-15T12:34:42.021-06:00Why I am eating my ballot.<style>
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<div class="MsoNormal">With one week to go in the Alberta general election campaign, I’m wondering what you perceive the biggest issues to be. Perhaps it is F-35 fighter jets, maybe it is the abolition of the gun registry, the omnibus crime bill, perhaps it is public service cuts related to food safety inspectors or the CBC.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">…So, I’m being told that those are not issues in the Alberta election… uh, huh… right, apparently, these are federal issues and not provincial issues… okay.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Well this makes sense, since we are contesting a provincial election, we should be discussing provincial issues like education, healthcare, energy and agriculture.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">…what’s that… okay, but… No you just said this was a provincial election… WTF?... So apparently, I am now being told that there is a federal contest in this election.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">At the same time there is a provincial general election (and a hotly contested one, at that) we are also selecting <a href="http://wtv.elections.ab.ca/wtCandidatesSNE.cfm?MID=SN1">nominees-in-waiting forthe federal senate</a>. Alberta is the only province in the country that partakes in <a href="http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/elected-senators-in-canada/">this practice</a>, and since confederation only three elected senators have ever been appointed to the senate. Otherwise, appointments are made by the Prime Minister without any democratic participation.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">It is a little ridiculous that we are holding this federal contest in the middle of a provincial campaign. There has been absolutely no attention paid to the contest, the candidates or the issues. The purpose of a democratic campaign, in my mind, is that every 4 years (or so) we engage in a public conversation around issues of importance and then citizens decide on who they think will best represent those views. If there is no public discussion of the issues, then the outcome of the process fails to have legitimacy.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Another peculiarity of this exercise that questions the legitimacy of the practice is that the people who are being elected next week, could be left in waiting for up to 6 years or longer. Who is to say, that the candidates elected by Albertans in 2012 will still be supported in 2018 or for that matter decades later as they still sit in the chamber. Perhaps the opinion of the candidate on certain issues will have changed; perhaps the opinion of Albertans will have changed. In a legitimate democratic campaign, the candidates need to discuss publicly the relevant issues of the day that they will be deciding on - that is not what is happening in this process. This delay between when an election is made and when an appointment is made brings further questions to the legitimacy of the election.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Now, I understand why we are doing this. There is a genuine interest in reforming the senate and most Albertans have seemingly supported the concept of a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple-E_Senate">triple-E senate</a> as advanced by the Reform party in the 1990s. But the little exercise we are engaged in today is haphazard and only achieves a miniscule element of piecemeal reformation. All it does is add some little bit of credibility to a system that is completely broken without committing to the full set of reforms that are necessary.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">At the end of the day, we should talk about real senate reform instead of piecemeal ad hoc revisions and perhaps we should even talk about abolishing the senate. The Senate is Canada’s version of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords">British House of Lords</a>. The House of Lords was the first version of parliament in the <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/evolutionofparliament/originsofparliament/birthofparliament/overview/origins/">English monarchy</a>. In the 11<sup>th</sup> century, this house included religious leaders and key advisors to the king, appointed by the king. It wasn’t until the 14<sup>th</sup> century that cities and boroughs demanded representation that the house of commons (representing commoners) was created. For centuries the house of lords included those who held particular church positions, those appointed by the king and those who inherited their seat from their parents. In fact, up until 1999 a chunk of seats in the house of lords were still being passed down within aristocratic families. (<a href="http://www.parliament.uk/about/mps-and-lords/about-lords/lords-appointment/">This page outlines how seats are given out in Britain today</a>). The house of lords maintained power over the house of commons for many centuries and the struggle of prominence is an important piece of British history. Ultimately, the house of lords is about maintaining power in the hands of the wealthy and elite and those who have become accustomed to holding power. It serves well to maintain the class lines that are so prominent in Britain throughout history and even into today.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">In today’s Canada, we have no need for a house of lords or a senate – elected or not. That is why I plan to spoil my senate ballot on April 23<sup>rd</sup> and I hope you will too.</div>Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-50550255512145715172012-03-31T12:41:00.001-06:002012-03-31T12:49:35.766-06:00180 degrees.180 degrees. About face.<br />
<br />
Alison Redford may have been called a flip flopper before, but this time it was a complete polar turn around. To be fair, I see nothing wrong with flip flopping. We all make mistakes and we all make decisions without necessarily considering the complete information. Reversing a decision simply means that a person has given an issue further consideration and deemed that a different decision would be more appropriate. Policy development should be about getting things right and it shouldn't matter if someone thought wrong before and has since changed their mind - as long as they get it right.<br />
<br />
Redford has now gotten it right (sort of). I am talking of course about the <a href="http://www.votepc.ca/admin/contentx/dpNews/launch.cfm?itemid=2354&r=10187">announcement made on Thursday</a> that PC MLAs will return their no-meet-committee pay. Clearly, this issue was being heard on the doorsteps as MLAs were canvassing for votes. This issue, it was deemed, was driving down <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2012#Opinion_polls">PC poll numbers</a>. A flip was necessary.<br />
<br />
And the PCs messaged this one perfectly - in a way very few politicians have had the courage to do so before.<br />
<br />
"Growing up I was always taught that the only thing worse than making a mistake was not admitting it and fixing it. I made a mistake on these issues and now I am fixing them," she said. "Leadership is about making decisions; sometimes difficult decisions and sometimes, admitting you were wrong."<br />
<br />
So, how did they get it so wrong? How did PC MLAs - smart, politically savvy people, with their ear to the ground - not know that Albertans would be so upset about this? I suspect they knew that there would be backlash, but they felt that the issue had been managed appropriately. Maybe they have a point.<br />
<br />
First off, MLA compensation <u><b>is</b></u> broken. There is a dominant narrative that suggests politicians are a bunch of pigs at a trough and we pay them too much money. This narrative is particularly strong in Alberta. So, for the past two decades, MLAs have attempted to hide the real amount of compensation that they get. They got rid of the pension plan and replaced it with severance packages. They slashed base pay and implemented tax free allowances. They implemented pay for committee and portfolio work and boosted it by 30 per cent. All of this is done in an effort to make MLA remuneration appear lower than it actually is. Ultimately, it is dishonest and unfair to both MLAs and taxpayers.<br />
<br />
MLAs saw the committee pay, not as pay specifically for the work of the committee, but rather just as a part of their actual total compensation. I think that is why <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/03/21/edmonton-prins-committee-quits.html">Ray Prins was so insulted</a> by this being phrased as an integrity question. For MLAs, being named to a committee meant they were being recognized for good work and the compensation that came with that was part and parcel of MLA pay. That concept that committee pay is about boosting total compensation for backbenchers as opposed to pay for extra work is echoed in <a href="http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/Cabinet+should+shelve+raise+says+Marz/6390691/story.html">statements made by former MLA Richard Marz.</a><br />
<br />
The real problem is that <a href="http://www.assembly.ab.ca/lao/hr/MLA/MLA%20Remuneration%20April%202011.htm">MLA base compensation</a> is too low. A number of MLAs are doctors, or lawyers or business executives and in many cases they now work harder and longer, under closer scrutiny and for less pay than they did before. Our premier, chairman of the board for an organization that manages a <a href="http://budget2012.alberta.ca/highlights/index.html">$40 billion per year operation</a> - takes in <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/story/2012/01/23/edmonton-mla-pay-hearings-start.html">a bit over $200,000 per year</a>. I wonder how that would compare to the chairman of a similar sized organization in the private sector? The average MLA pay depending on the source you ask, is between $125,000 and $160,000. I'm not going to suggest that that is a small amount of money, but if we want the best decisions made, then we need to attract the best and brightest to public office. We have to give them an incentive for taking the risk, making the sacrifices and managing the time and stress associated with the role.<br />
<br />
At the end of the day, a review is necessary and Redford has appropriately appointed former Supreme Court justice <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/11/30/john-major-ex-supreme-co_n_1121236.html">John Major</a> to lead that review. Policy-wise it was the right decision to make - unfortunately it didn't work out well for her politically. Hopefully this honest reversal will.Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-74577257355475232312012-03-28T22:28:00.000-06:002012-03-28T22:28:16.884-06:00Liberals release poll, continue with bold movesThe Alberta Liberals carried on day two of the provincial election campaign with another bold move. After suggesting that they had the <a href="http://atypicalalbertan.blogspot.ca/2012/03/hotel-stunt-wins-day-one-for-sherman.html">best day one </a>of the parties, I risk coming across as partisan when I suggest that they take the cake again for day two. The big bang came from <a href="http://www.albertaliberal.com/news.php?n=83">releasing internal poll results</a> on public opinion of their policy platform. This move wasn't a complete win for the Liberals but it was the boldest move of the day.<br />
<br />
(Honourable mention goes to the Conservative <a href="http://www.votepc.ca/admin/contentx/dpNews/launch.cfm?itemid=2256&r=10187">"Compare" press releases</a>, but I am sure I will be able to write about those on a future day.)<br />
<br />
It is common for parties to engage in all sorts of public polling (and even push polling, if you are <a href="http://www.vancouversun.com/Smith+gets+robocall+push+poll/6369493/story.html">Stephen Carter</a>) but it is most uncommon for those parties to release the results publicly. Furthermore, the Alberta Liberals need to be given full points for releasing the entire results - warts and all.<br />
<br />
The poll results show that the public might be comfortable with adopting some of the Liberal positions, perhaps even more so if they don't come from the Liberals:<br />
<ul><li>57% of Albertans support doubling the seniors home care budget,</li>
<li>50% support elimination school fees,</li>
<li>53% support post secondary debt forgiveness for grads who stay in Alberta,</li>
<li>50% support tuition elimination, </li>
<li>64% support free votes in the legislature,</li>
<li>54% support income tax hikes on the wealthy, and</li>
<li>66% support higher corporate taxes.</li>
</ul> I should mention that all of the poll questions were phrased in the positive and people are more likely to poll in favour of things as opposed to being against things and that may speak to some of the support. But what is interesting is question C3: Having heard these ideas from the Alberta Liberal Party platform do they make you more or less likely to vote for them? <br />
<br />
Almost as many people said they were <u><b>less</b></u> likely to vote for the Liberals as said they were <u><b>more</b></u> likely to vote for them (around a third of respondents each). 28% of people said they wouldn't change their voting intention at all. And given that only 13% of respondents expressed support for the Liberals, this result should not be completely comforting for the grits. The question not asked was would you be more likely to vote for the NDP or Wildrose party after hearing their policy.<br />
<br />
Unfortunately, ideas matter less in elections than how effective you are at messaging them or how popular your leader is. The Liberals have a big branding issue in Alberta that probably can't be solved by simply expressing good ideas.<br />
<br />
Two days of bold announcements might help fix the brand, but they must have some big tricks left to pull out later in the campaign too.Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-42497146090047496192012-03-27T22:20:00.000-06:002012-03-27T22:20:25.671-06:00Hotel stunt wins day one for ShermanAn election campaign is upon us and that means that each day will be filled with announcements, attacks, ideas, stunts and mistakes. It makes for an interesting time as Albertans spend 4 weeks discussing a wide variety of public policy issues (in theory). With so little surprise as to the day the campaign would start each party had a good opportunity to plan for it and ensure that they started with their best foot forward. For me, the strategies and the tactics are the most compelling thing to watch. There were no flubs, but which party and which happening was most notable on Day One?<br />
<br />
My vote has to go to the Alberta Liberal party.<br />
<br />
While the other parties held news conferences from the legislature with their leader surrounded by candidates attempting to set a narrative in motion, it was Raj Sherman who decided to do things a little differently. He launched his campaign from the Fairmont Hotel MacDonald of all places.<br />
<br />
Dr Sherman started out with a stunt that reinforced the issue on which he is most knowledgeable and for which most Albertans describe as their top priority: healthcare. The message being delivered: a night in acute care is more costly than a night in the most expensive hotel in Edmonton. Point well delivered and well punctuated.<br />
<br />
Albertans are finally starting to realise and accept generally that the biggest problem with our healthcare system is the waiting times for extended care beds for seniors. Unfortunately, these people who do not require acute care treatment (what most of us consider to be a general hospital bed), are stuck in acute care beds until the longterm care spaces open up. The log jam here is clogging the hallways down to and out the emergency room doors.<br />
<br />
Emergency wards are full of people who are ready to be moved to acute care, but have to wait and the waiting rooms are full of people waiting to see a doctor in the emergency ward. Unfortunately, a good number of the people waiting to be seen in Emergency are being attended to by paramedics and the stress gets passed on to our ambulatory system.<br />
<br />
Dr Sherman delivered a solid blow on day one by effectively showing that a little bit of money spent on seniors long term care will save money in all other parts of the system while simultaneously fixing some of the biggest problems.Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-14419045060979246362012-03-27T00:08:00.000-06:002012-03-27T00:08:28.263-06:00Election 2012 Begins - A real race is expected.As expected <a href="http://www.votepc.ca/admin/contentx/default.cfm?h=10101&PageId=10101">Premier Alison Redford</a> visited the Lieutenant-Governor's office today and started Alberta's 2012 general election. She waited until the Alberta legislature passed the budget to get the campaign started in an effort to reinforce the party image as stable competent managers. The strategy seemed sound: pass a fair and prudent budget, move forward on key legislation and keep <a href="http://www.wildrose.ca/meet-danielle-2/meet-danielle/">Danielle Smith</a> on the sidelines. The risk, of course, is that you provide a forum for the opposition parties to air their grievances on a daily basis. If a narrative emerges and gains traction, then you are stuck in the house responding to an agenda advanced by the opposition parties. Unfortunately a narrative emerged: the Tories are bullies and have abused the reins of power for too long. This narrative was largely advanced by the Liberals and will serve the Wildrose party well.<br />
<br />
Recent <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2012#Opinion_polls">polls</a> bear witness to this critical mistake on election timing. Prior to the spring session the PCs had a comfortable 10-15 point lead, but two polls released on the day the election started show the race is much closer.<br />
<br />
A <a href="http://edmonton.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120326/EDM_ElectionPoll_120326/20120326/?hub=EdmontonHome">CTV-Forum</a> research poll puts the PCs ahead only three points over the Wildrose province wide (36-33) amongst decided voters. Even worse, a <a href="http://www.globaltvedmonton.com/the+race+is+on+ipsos+poll+shows+pcs+and+wildrose+neck+and+neck/6442608473/story.html">Global-Ipsos </a>poll puts the parties in a complete tie (38-38). With a strong Tory lead in Edmonton, both polls demonstrate that Wildrose is ahead in Calgary and rural Alberta.<br />
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Now I am watching the polls closely and have developed a little seat projection tool that I hope will serve me well throughout the campaign. According to my projections, a vote held today would yield 51 seats for the PCs, 27 for the Wildrose, 6 seats for the NDP and 3 seats for the Liberals. (My <a href="https://twitter.com/#%21/atypicalalbertn/status/166304132599267328">pre-session projections</a> were 65-12-5-5, and a few commentators said I was giving too much credit to the opposition).<br />
<br />
Polls aside, 28 days can be an eternity in politics and a vigorous campaign will undoubtedly emerge. Redford strategist <a href="https://twitter.com/#%21/carter_AB">Stephen Carter</a> is known to use the full length of the campaign period quite effectively, so the story on April 22nd will be quite different from the story today. I hope to write to you dear reader on a daily basis until then. I hope you will enjoy it and share your thoughts.Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-38799756895494252162011-09-16T16:50:00.000-06:002011-09-16T16:50:51.165-06:00PC Leadership: first ballot predictionsI pride myself on having made some pretty accurate<a href="http://atypicalalbertan.blogspot.com/2006/11/november-26-2006-aftermath.html"> predictions</a> in the 2006 Progressive Conservative Party leadership contest and so on this, the eve of the first ballot of the 2011 edition I feel it is necessary to register my thoughts.<br />
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<a href="http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Poll+pegs+consensus+candidate/5399081/story.html">Environics </a>has provided a little bit of help for prognosticators, but I don't put a ton of weight into their polling results. Nearly 100,000 people voted in the first ballot in 2006 and the Environics poll was based on a membership list of 22,000 members. The origins of the list is under investigation, but I suspect it came from one of the campaigns. This is important because it may mean that campaigns that turned in their lists prior to the poll being conducted would be overrepresented while campaigns that didn't want to release their lists to the other candidates would be underrepresented. Similarly, a large number of voters will be registered at the polls.<br />
<br />
With that in mind, I think the two front-runners have been clear and consistent all the way along and they are <a href="http://garymar.ca/">Gary Ma</a>r and <a href="http://www.tedmorton.ca/">Ted Morton</a>. Similarly, both <a href="http://www.voterickorman.com/">Rick Orman</a> and <a href="http://www.betteralberta.ca/">Doug Griffiths</a> faced uphill battles and will be a long way off from making the cut of top three for the second ballot. The only real questions remaining for me are who will be number three and how far ahead will Gary Mar be?<br />
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This is where I will take guidance from Environics. <a href="http://www.alisonredford.ca/">Alison Redford'</a>s support in that poll is well ahead of where I thought she would be. She is also perceived as a bit of a game changer and has been pretty much at the center of any of the big news-worthy controversial issues in the campaign. She also has a cracking campaign manager in Stephen Carter. <a href="http://hornerforalberta.ca/">Doug Horner</a> has run a strong campaign, but in a contest that was initiated on desire for change, I worry he will be perceived too strongly as the status quo candidate.<br />
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So here is my predicted order of candidate placements on the first ballot. And heck, just for fun, I will put some numbers in for possible results.<br />
<br />
1. Gary Mar (30-35%)<br />
2. Ted Morton (25-30%)<br />
3. Alison Redford (15-20%)<br />
4. Doug Horner (10-15%)<br />
5. Doug Griffiths (around 5%)<br />
6. Rick Orman (around 5%)<br />
<br />
Of course, endorsements should be interesting and will have a big impact on how the second ballot turns out - as will, the ability of any of the campaigns to sell memberships and get votes out on October 1.Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-42549189043247594342011-07-30T15:48:00.000-06:002011-07-30T15:48:07.669-06:00The Hamilton Oilers? I highly doubt it!<div class="MsoNormal">The biggest thing that irks me about the Edmonton arena debate is how the Katz group is using Oiler fandom to separate reasonable consideration from the debate over public funding. Typically, the arguments are based on one big fallacy – that the Oilers will leave Edmonton if public funds are not spent on a new downtown arena.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">The fallacy was created when Katz delivered a veiled threat by stating that the <a href="http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/Oilers+play+Rexall+Katz+Group+says/3304300/story.html?cid=megadrop_story">Oilers would not play in the Northlands Coliseum</a> (a name I will use for Rexall Place in order to separate the building from the Rexall brand of companies, which owns the naming rights) after <span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 255, 255);">2014</span>. I wrote <a href="http://atypicalalbertan.blogspot.com/2008/12/city-of-edmonton-to-pay-half-costs-for.html">twice</a> <a href="http://atypicalalbertan.blogspot.com/2010/06/katz-and-copps-why-edmonton-should-be.html">earlier</a> on this issue. Ultimately the argument is based on the misconception that professional hockey in Edmonton is not viable in the long term.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">First, I find it hard to believe that the Oilers franchise is not profitable year-over-year. They currently have a sweetheart <span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 255, 255);">$1 per year lease</span><span style="background-color: white;"> </span>on the Coliseum. All of the rinkboard and ice advertising is consistently sold out. All luxury boxes and season ticket seats are sold out with waiting lists for any vacancies. Nearly all of the individual seats for every home game is sold by game time. The team also owns a WHL team and an <span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 255, 255);">NAL</span> baseball team, used to help market the Oilers brand. Merchandise sales are strong and lucrative broadcast deals are in place. Furthermore, the much desired salary cap is in place and the Oilers are operating well underneath it. If NHL is not profitable in Oil Country then I do not know where it would be profitable.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">But, we won’t know much about the profitability of the Oilers because the <span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 255, 255);">Katz group is not willing to share their financial information</span><span style="background-color: white;"> </span>– even though they want taxpayer money to subsidize the future operation. And really, profitability doesn’t matter so much. Just ask <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edmonton_Investors_Group">the Edmonton Investors Group</a>. The EIG owned the Oilers from <span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 255, 255);">1998 – 2008</span><span style="background-color: white;"> </span>and while the team consistently lost money over the years, it didn’t bother the members of the EIG too much. You see, they bought the team for <span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 255, 255);">$70 million in 1998</span><span style="background-color: white;"> and sold it to Katz for </span><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 255, 255);">$200 million in 2008</span><span style="background-color: white;">. What matters more than profitability for businesspeople is Return on Investment (ROI). The ROI for EIG's investment was </span><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 255, 255);">285% for a very generous growth of 11% per year</span><span style="background-color: white;"> </span>– a number that would make every Dragon in the den sign on.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">The final piece of the moneymaking puzzle for Katz comes back to his intricate understanding of how to leverage sports fandom and loyalty to make money. The business case for the Rexall group of companies is very strong. Tie the brand to the Edmonton Oilers and to hockey in every way possible, including using Blue and Orange as your brand colours, ensure that the brand owner is reinforced consistently as a true Edmontonian and watch as the brand overtakes market share in Northern Alberta. There is nothing wrong with this strategy, by the way, but it needs to be reiterated that building the Oilers brand also creates revenue for the Rexall companies, which I’m sure are much larger and more profitable then the Oilers brand.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Now, add together these three models of moneymaking for the Katz group and ask yourself the following questions. Why would Darryl Katz even consider moving the Oilers out of Edmonton? Why should any money that rightfully belongs to all taxpayers be going to subsidize the lucrative business operations of a billionaire? Should taxpayer money be more appropriately spent to hire more police officers, paramedics, doctors, nurses or teachers? And, is there <a href="http://alexabboud.wordpress.com/2011/07/29/100-million-for-downtown-edmonton/">a better way</a> to spend $225 million of taxpayer money to revitalize downtown?</div>Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-32233004615507827022011-05-01T21:29:00.001-06:002011-05-01T21:32:23.512-06:00Federal Election PredictionWith the 41st Canadian General Election Day arriving tomorrow, it seems that it is time for me to get my election prediction on the record.<br />
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I am predicting a Conservative minority government with the New Democratic Party holding the balance of power. At this point, those two predictions are not ground breakers, so I want to add that I see the NDP and Liberals being placed in a position where their combined seats will challenge the number of seats that the Conservatives hold - meaning that a coalition government formed by those parties would not necessarily require the formal support of the Bloc Quebecois. I am also going to predict that Elizabeth May will win her seat for the Green Parties.<br />
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Here are my predictions, by the numbers:<br />
<br />
<table><tbody>
<tr> <td></td> <td><b>Bloc</b></td> <td><b>Conservative</b></td> <td><b>Green</b></td> <td><b>Liberal</b></td> <td><b>NDP</b></td> </tr>
<tr> <td><b>Total Seats</b></td> <td><b>30</b></td><td><b>140</b></td><td><b>1</b></td><td><b>41</b></td><td><b>96</b></td></tr>
<tr> <td><b>Popular Vote</b></td><td><b>6%</b></td><td><b>36%</b></td><td><b>6%</b></td><td><b>19%</b></td><td><b>32%</b></td></tr>
<tr></tr>
<tr> <td><i>Regional breakdowns</i> </td></tr>
<tr><td><br />
BC</td><td>--</td><td>18</td><td>1</td><td>3</td><td>14</td></tr>
<tr><td>Alberta</td><td>--</td><td>26</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>2</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sask/Man</td><td>--</td><td>20</td><td>0</td><td>2</td><td>6</td></tr>
<tr><td>Ontario</td><td>--</td><td>56</td><td>0</td><td>24</td><td>26</td></tr>
<tr><td>Quebec</td><td>30</td><td>9</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>33</td></tr>
<tr><td>Atlantic</td><td>--</td><td>10</td><td>0</td><td>9</td><td>13</td></tr>
<tr><td>Territories</td><td>--</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>2</td> </tr>
</tbody></table><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">A special thanks to<a href="http://www.sfu.ca/%7Eaheard/elections/results.html"> this page</a> for supplying such a great summary of the poll numbers.</span>Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-82249766088324809312011-04-25T19:05:00.001-06:002011-04-25T19:07:50.787-06:00BKACPP - Marijuana Party<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.marijuanaparty.ca/images/paul_martin_must_legalize.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.marijuanaparty.ca/images/paul_martin_must_legalize.gif" /></a></div><br />
Party Name: <a href="http://www.marijuanaparty.ca/index.en.php3">Marijuana Party</a><br />
<br />
<br />
Leader (Location):<br />
<ul><li>Blair T. Longley (Hochelaga, PQ) </li>
</ul><br />
Date of Registration:<br />
<ul><li>November 6, 2000 </li>
</ul><br />
2008 election:<br />
<ul><li>8 candidates</li>
<li>2,298 total votes</li>
<li>13th of 19 parties </li>
</ul><br />
Notable History:<br />
<ul><li>Between 2000 and 2004, 90% of contributions to the marijuana party were made under a legal scheme known as "Longley's Loophole." Under the scheme, the contributor could define how the contributions were to be used, even in a way that was of direct benefit to the contributor. </li>
</ul>Biggest Issues:<br />
<ul><li>Two policy statements are written on the website: Legalize marijuana. Legalize revolution. </li>
</ul><br />
Intriguing statement on website:<br />
<ul><li>"People who are Members of the Party, or people who are Officers or Agents of this Party, have NO obligations to endorse nor vote for its Candidates. They have an independent right to vote, and to vote strategically, as they decide. Candidates are not obliged to agree with other Candidates or the Leader. We make no efforts to collectivize. We operate in decentralized ways." </li>
</ul><br />
Extraordinary statements on website:<br />
<i>It is interesting to note that the Marijuana Party website can be edited by any candidate, official agent or ‘regular marijuana party activist.’</i><br />
<ul><li>The world is controlled by huge lies, backed up with lots of violence, and that is automatically getting worse! It is a runaway fascist plutocracy juggernaut ... Since the world is controlled by the people who are the "best" at dishonesty, backed up with violence, we actually are living in a Bizarro Mirror World!</li>
</ul>Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-85507918042582300572011-04-11T21:05:00.000-06:002011-04-11T21:05:59.104-06:00BKACPP - Libertarian Party of Canada<a href="http://www.libertarian.ca/images/libertarian-logo-rcc250.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.libertarian.ca/images/libertarian-logo-rcc250.gif" /></a><br />
<br />
Party Name: <a href="http://www.libertarian.ca/">Libertarian Party of Canada</a><br />
<br />
<br />
Leader (Location):<br />
<ul><li>Dennis Young (Sudbury, ON)</li>
</ul><br />
Date of Registration:<br />
<ul><li>July 7, 1973</li>
</ul><br />
2008 election:<br />
<ul><li>26 candidates</li>
<li>7,300 total votes</li>
<li>8th of 19 parties</li>
</ul><br />
Notable History:<br />
<ul><li>"The party described itself as Canada's "fourth party" in the 1980s, but it has since been displaced by new parties such as the Bloc Québécois and the Green Party of Canada. The party declined to join the Reform Party of Canada when it was formed in 1987, attracting many libertarians who saw it as a better vehicle to put forward their philosophy." - <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertarian_Party_of_Canada">Wikipedia</a></li>
</ul><br />
Biggest Issues:<br />
<ul><li>Small government, property rights, personal liberty.</li>
</ul><br />
<br />
Intriguing statement on website:<br />
<ul><li>We believe that no measure should have the force of law unless adopted by a duly elected Parliament, or by initiative; therefore, we are opposed to government by Order-in-Council.</li>
</ul><br />
<br />
Extraordinary statements on website:<br />
<ul><li>Government interference in current social concerns such as pollution, consumer protection, health care delivery, and poverty exceeds the level required for the protection of individual rights. In addition, problems in these areas have not been solved, but primarily caused by government.</li>
<li>We support the repeal of compulsory education laws, and the elimination of government operation, regulation, and subsidy of educational institutions.</li>
<li>We propose the elimination of all government involvement in welfare and relief programs. Any aid to the poor should be conducted on a voluntary basis.</li>
<li>Doctors and other health care professionals should be free to work without licensing from the government.</li>
<li>We advocate an end to defense based on "insanity" or "diminished capacity," which absolve the guilty of their responsibility</li>
</ul>Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-72102514545658665712011-04-08T12:04:00.000-06:002011-04-08T12:04:25.705-06:00BKACPP - Communist Party of Canada<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.parti-communiste.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/svg2raster-300x300.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.parti-communiste.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/svg2raster-300x300.jpg" /></a></div><br />
Party Name: <a href="http://www.votecommunist.ca/">Communist Party of Canada</a><br />
<br />
Tag Line:<br />
<ul><li>For peace, jobs, sovereignty and democracy</li>
</ul><br />
Leader (Location):<br />
<ul><li>Miguel Figueroa (Davenport, ON)</li>
</ul><br />
Date of Founding:<br />
<ul><li>May 1921</li>
</ul><br />
2008 election:<br />
<ul><li>24 candidates</li>
<li>3,572 total votes</li>
<li>10th of 19 parties </li>
</ul><br />
Notable History:<br />
<ul><li>"Figueroa v. Attorney-General of Canada resulted in the courts declaring several sections of the Elections Act unconstitutional, including a precedent-setting judgment of the Supreme Court of Canada in June 2003 which struck down the 50-candidate rule as the threshold for federal party registration in Canada."</li>
</ul><br />
<br />
Biggest Issues:<br />
<ul><li>"Our goal is a socialist Canada, in which resources and economic wealth are socially owned and democratically controlled by the working people, not private capitalists."</li>
</ul><br />
Intriguing statement on website:<br />
<ul><li>"Scrap the Drug Patent Act (which guarantees mega-profits for the big drug companies, and high costs for health care), and build a publicly-owned pharmaceutical sector. Expand Medicare to include eye, dental, pharmacare and long-term care. Stop the “war on drugs”; treat addiction as a medical problem, not a criminal act."</li>
</ul><br />
Extraordinary statement on website:<br />
<ul><li>"the Conservative party ‑ the preferred party of monopoly capital ‑ is the most dangerous threat to peace, democracy, and workers’ rights. They must go… now!"</li>
</ul>Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-17399710118662934952011-04-04T11:51:00.001-06:002011-04-04T12:00:56.792-06:00BKACPP - Christian Heritage Party of Canada<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile-ak-snc4/50354_6118236484_1583_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile-ak-snc4/50354_6118236484_1583_n.jpg" /></a></div><br />
Party Name: <a href="http://www.chp.ca/">Christian Heritage Party of Canada</a><br />
<br />
<br />
Tag Line:<br />
<ul><li>Better Solutions for Canada</li>
</ul><br />
Leader (Location):<br />
<ul><li>James (Jim) Hnatiuk (Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit Valley, NS)</li>
</ul><br />
Date of Registration:<br />
<ul><li>June 17, 1986</li>
</ul><br />
2008 election:<br />
<ul><li>59 candidates</li>
<li>26,475 total votes</li>
<li>6th of 19 parties</li>
</ul><br />
Notable History:<br />
<ul><li>"During its 25 years history, the CHP has contested every federal election with candidates from across Canada who have been true to this vision. (Although in 2000 CHP candidates ran as independents because the CHP fell one candidate short of the minimum 50 candidates required at that time.)"</li>
</ul><br />
<br />
Biggest Issues:<br />
<ul><li>Abortion and Immigration seem to be the most prevalent issues, but the CHP has a broad comprehensive policy. This party would be the extremist brother of America's Tea Party. Their childcare strategy would give $1,000 per month to two parent families who have one parent stay at home – they argue this policy would be cost neutral because of savings in EI and Welfare.</li>
</ul><br />
Intriguing statement on website:<br />
<ul><li>"The CHP proposes that student loans be interest-free and repayment-free for ten years after graduation, to allow grads to get well-established in their chosen career fields before they begin repaying their share of their tuition."</li>
</ul><br />
Extraordinary statements on website (there are tons of them!):<br />
<ul><li>"The CHP rejects cultural relativism, and asserts that not all cultures are equal or equally good."</li>
<li>"Canada is currently at war with an enemy that espouses a particularly dangerous and pernicious ideology, radical Islam, which seeks the subjugation of the entire world to its ideology."</li>
<li>"Recognize that immigration is being used as a form of jihad designed to undermine Canada’s Judeo-Christian culture and law to replace it with Sharia law; CHP Canada would immediately implement a moratorium on immigration from any Muslim nation."</li>
<li>"Abortion is now the most common surgical procedure in Canada, but rather than curing any illness, it creates new health problems: the newest research confirms that abortion increases the risk of breast cancer, and recent studies in the UK show that in the two years after a pregnancy, the death rate from all causes is twice as high for abortive women as for those who carry their pregnancy to term, and the suicide rate is six times as high."</li>
<li>"HIV/AIDS is essentially a behavioural disease, and control requires (a) behavioural change; and (b) normal public health measures (contact tracing; quarantine the infected to protect the uninfected; education). The AIDS Establishment’s focus on medication, if not accompanied by behavioural change, increases the rate of infection by enabling infected persons to live longer (which is good) and to continue to be sexually promiscuous (which is bad)" </li>
</ul>Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-24296092941506189012011-04-01T17:53:00.000-06:002011-04-01T17:53:30.405-06:00BKACPP - Canadian Action Party<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://canadianactionparty.ca/files/logo.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://canadianactionparty.ca/files/logo.png" /></a></div><br />
Party Name:<br />
<ul><li><a href="http://canadianactionparty.ca/">Canadian Action Party</a></li>
</ul>Leader:<br />
<ul><li>Christopher Porter</li>
</ul><br />
Date of Founding:<br />
<ul><li>1997 05 13</li>
</ul><br />
2008 election:<br />
<ul><li>20 candidates</li>
<li>3 455 votes</li>
<li>11th place of 19 parties</li>
</ul><br />
Notable History: <br />
<ul><li>Party was formed in 1997 after the collapse of the National Party of Canada by former Minister of Defense and current member of Privy Council Paul Hellyer.</li>
</ul><br />
Biggest Issues:<br />
<ul><li>Securing Canadian sovereignty through monetary reform. Five key pillars: Monetary Reform, Sovereignty, Civil and Human Rights, Parliamentary Reform and Environment.</li>
</ul><br />
Intriguing statement on website: <br />
<ul><li>The Canadian Action Party is, above all, a pro-Canadian party dedicated to the principle that Canada can best serve its citizens and the world by re-claiming and maintaining its political and economic sovereignty as an independent country. It is opposed to the ascendancy of "corporate rule" and those aspects of unrestricted global investment that promote colonization of the world's smaller powers and in Canada's case its absorption by the United States of America.</li>
</ul><br />
Extraordinary statement on website:<br />
<ul><li>There is a massive body of research suggesting that an intentional program of spreading diseases and health problems has been underway for many years in Canada, as elsewhere in the world; and further, that many pharmaceuticals being promoted have not been adequately researched, nor their effectiveness properly followed up. Serious health risks appear to be associated with chemtrail spraying, inoculations, the fluoridation of drinking water, the use of aspartame and other additives, and the introduction of irradiated and genetically modified foods, and a range of pharmaceuticals. The government appears to consistently support the corporate agenda while putting the health of Canadians at risk.</li>
</ul>Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-52446654078332109022011-03-30T20:03:00.001-06:002011-03-30T20:04:59.206-06:00BKACPP - Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party of CanadaElizabeth May is quite concerned that the Green Party will not be included in the televised debates. And while I like the Green Party and believe that their contribution to the general political discourse is valuable, I believe that it is important to have a reasonable and consistent principle on which to judge the parties that will take place in the debates. I understand that the test being used is whether a party held seats in the last parliament. The fact is the line has to be drawn somewhere, as there are 19 registered political parties in Canada and all of them cannot be included in a single meaningful debate.<br />
<br />
This of course got me thinking, what are the other parties that exist in Canada?<br />
<br />
With that in mind, I am pleased to present part 1 of my 19 part series, Better Know A Canadian Political Party. This edition, the Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party of Canada... the fighting Barkers!<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.environmentvoters.org/aaevlogo%20edited.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.environmentvoters.org/aaevlogo%20edited.JPG" /></a></div><br />
<br />
<br />
Party Name:<br />
<br />
<ul><li><a href="http://www.environmentvoters.org/">Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party of Canada</a></li>
</ul><br />
<br />
Tag Line:<br />
<ul><li>North America's first environmental and animal protection political party </li>
</ul><br />
Leader (Location):<br />
<ul><li>Liz White (Toronto) </li>
</ul><br />
Date of Founding:<br />
<ul><li>2005 </li>
</ul><br />
2008 election:<br />
<ul><li>4 candidates</li>
<li>527 total votes</li>
<li>16th of 19 parties </li>
</ul><br />
Notable History:<br />
<ul><li>Predecessor group challenged 2000 law limiting the role of third parties in electoral politics. </li>
</ul><br />
<br />
Biggest Issues:<br />
<ul><li>Animal rights and prevention of cruelty to animals. </li>
</ul><br />
Intriguing statement on website:<br />
<ul><li>"For politicians working in a democracy, re-election often becomes the biggest concern when deciding public policy; it can overwhelm all other considerations." </li>
</ul><br />
Extraordinary statement on website:<br />
<ul><li>"Contact your MP and ask where he / she stands on topics including ending Canada's commercial seal hunt - the largest, cruellest marine mammal slaughter in the world, curtailing or shutting down the Alberta Tar Sands - the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, and banning the importation of horses from the United States - where it is illegal to slaughter them for human consumption" </li>
</ul><br />
<br />
Stay tuned for more episodes in this series!Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-70910813039204439222011-02-08T00:07:00.001-07:002011-02-08T00:09:46.709-07:00A tale of two schoolsI want to tell you about two schools:<br />
<ul><li><a href="http://www.myalbertaschool.ca/home/item/continuous-small-miracles-copy">Athabasca Delta Community School</a> in Fort Chipewyan, Alberta, and</li>
<li><a href="http://www.rickross.com/reference/polygamy/polygamy757.html">Mormon Hills School</a> in Bountiful, British Columbia.</li>
</ul>I won't pretend that the linked reports are unbiased comprehensive depictions of either school, but they paint an interesting picture of the type of education that occurs in each school. Please ensure you take a few moments to read each article.<br />
<br />
Now, you might be surprised to hear that <a href="http://www.fraserinstitute.org/default.aspx">some</a> have deemed Mormon Hills school to be the <a href="http://www.fraserinstitute.org/research-news/display.aspx?id=17243">best school in BC</a>, while claiming Athabasca Delta Community School is one of the <a href="http://www.fraserinstitute.org/research-news/research/display.aspx?id=15944">worst schools in Alberta</a>.<br />
<br />
This little tale of two schools is indicative of the Fraser Institute's view on the function of education.<br />
<br />
Without knowing too much about either school, it is reasonable to expect that the level of critical thinking being developed at Mormon Hills School would be low. After all, you would not want the 14-year old students/brides to be questioning authority or their pre-defined future careers in "cooking, cleaning and child-minding." But, who needs high levels of critical thinking skills in order to fill in the bubbles on multiple-choice tests?<br />
<br />
On the other end, you have the high needs children of Athabasca Delta Community School, where students are starting out well behind in academic achievement and are further hindered by "numerous socioeconomic issues beyond their control and comprehension." The small miracles of the school are accomplished when the students can read the exams, let alone answer the questions.<br />
<br />
On one hand we have a school that is doing everything it can to help students achieve to their fullest potential in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds and on the other hand we have a school that is seemingly focused on ensuring that their students are best positioned to be subservient cogs in an oppressive regime.<br />
<br />
And the Fraser Institute is saying that the one form of education has little value while the other one is commendable.<br />
<br />
But, as I've written about <a href="http://atypicalalbertan.blogspot.com/2010/02/in-his-book-dont-think-of-elephant.html">at least</a> <a href="http://atypicalalbertan.blogspot.com/2010/06/fraser-institute-is-flat-wrong.html">twice</a> <a href="http://atypicalalbertan.blogspot.com/2011/01/on-being-teacher-or-why-merit-pay.html">before</a>, this fits the world-view of neo-conservatives like the Fraser Institute. Their world-view is based on a father-knows-best morality and their vision of education is based on a system that develops good little worker cogs.<br />
<br />
The alternative is a system based on nurturing talents and encouraging students to think critically and creatively over multiple domains, prepared to be confident open-minded citizens.<br />
<br />
I know which education system I prefer.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
This post was inspired by <a href="http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Fraser+Institute+dubs+Bountiful+Mormon+Hills+best+school/4239908/story.html?cid=dlvr.it-twitter-ej_news">this article</a>.Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-58043779622299658832011-02-05T14:36:00.000-07:002011-02-05T14:36:13.628-07:00Your once-in-a-century chance is now!In 2008, for Alberta's last election, only 40% of eligible voters decided to cast a ballot. Many people cite cynicism, apathy or a lack of likable candidates as reasons to not vote. All of those reasons will disappear for the next election.<br />
<br />
If you care about whether there will be an ambulance available when you need one, how long you have to wait for medical attention or the number of students that will be in your child's classroom then you should care about Alberta politics. If you care about the environment, the cost of college tuition, the price of gas, the state of highways, how our seniors are cared for, what our parks look like, whether we have clean water to drink, where electrical lines will run, what happens to children in abusive homes, whether we are selling our oil at a reasonable rate, what might happen with your job or how much taxes you pay then Alberta politics affects you. Heck, if you are concerned about having your streets plowed there is even an element of provincial governance affecting that.<br />
<br />
So many of the decisions that affect your everyday life are determined by the Alberta legislature, and now you have a chance to affect those decisions unlike any other Albertan that came before in the province's 106 year history.<br />
<br />
Currently, there are five provincial parties represented in the legislature and three of them are going through a competition to determine who their next leader will be. These parties represent a wide diverse set of values and there is no doubt that at least one of them would be reflective of your values.<br />
<br />
At the ends of the political spectrum are the two parties with leaders in place, the <a href="http://www.albertandp.ca/">Alberta New Democratic Party</a> and the <a href="http://wildrosealliance.ca/">Wildrose Alliance Party</a>. Check out their websites, if you like their policies you will like their leaders. Both Brian Mason and Danielle Smith are likable, effective advocates for their party members.<br />
<br />
If you decide that those two parties are not for you, then I encourage you to look into the <a href="http://www.albertaparty.ca/">Alberta Party</a>, the <a href="http://www.albertaliberal.com/index.php">Alberta Liberal Party</a>, or the <a href="http://www.albertapc.ab.ca/">Progressive Conservative Party</a>. These three parties sit somewhere in between the NDP and the WAP. And they are all engaging in a leadership campaign over the next 9 months or so. There is likely going to be over a dozen people committed and courageous enough to put their names forward to become one of this province's next premiers.<br />
<br />
With this range of choice and opportunity to influence, no-one should be left without a voice.<br />
<br />
Take a look at the party policies and see which ones support your vision for Alberta. At this point, you don't even have to commit to one party! The state of things today is very fluid and in any party there will be some policies you like and some you don't. Different leadership candidates will emphasize different priorities and members coming and leaving will have influence over the policies. Memberships cost between $5 and $10 for the year and will keep you up-to-date and provide you with a chance to select the leader.<br />
<br />
Next, find out about the potential leadership candidates and get behind your favourite(s). The leader will have a lot of influence on the actual decisions of the party and which policy pieces will be prioritized. You can support your favourite candidate by voting for him or her, talking about him with your neighbours, volunteering for her campaign or making a donation.<br />
<br />
As the leaders are selected and the state of flux starts to thicken we will be headed right into a general election where you can reassess which leader-party-candidate combination works best for you in your riding, then you can get involved in that campaign or simply vote.<br />
<br />
With this state of affairs, cynicism is not an excuse, lack of candidates is not a reality and apathy will not be accepted. Get off the sidelines and get in the game - it is your responsibility as a citizen.Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-28562228009519039612011-02-01T12:29:00.000-07:002011-02-01T12:29:54.971-07:00How identity and leadership will factor on the future of Alberta politicsThe two biggest factors that will determine the political future, coming out of this incredible state of flux, will be identity and leadership.<br />
<br />
I have often said that Alberta politics is all about identity. More specifically, the common piece of identity related to being a conservative (or a Conservative). For many Albertans (in particular, those over 50), being Albertan meant being conservative. This has a lot to do with the political rhetoric coming out of the 70s and 80s where divisive politics pitted the Lougheed Conservatives in Alberta against the Trudeau Liberals federally on a number of issues, including the Charter, the NEP and multiculturalism. The story went that Liberals were infringing on provincial issues and that their policies were killing Alberta prosperity and the Alberta way of life. The Progressive Conservatives in Alberta were seen as the ones who would stand up for Alberta and protect our interests. Coming out of that era, Albertans have been inextricably identified as conservatives and that label has passed on to many younger people who hadn't even been born when the construct was created.<br />
<br />
This identity has lead to the relative constant state of the Progressive Conservative party. The brand has been absolutely invulnerable and the party has been the destination for anyone who is seriously interested in participating in governing the province. Needless to say, the party includes a large number of people with significantly diverse political viewpoints who from time to time struggle over control of the party that controls the province. We saw it in 1992, we saw it in 2006 and we are seeing it now.<br />
<br />
The interesting thing about identity is how hard it is to shake off. For many Albertans, they have identified as Progressive Conservative and won't turn their backs on the brand. The 2006 leadership campaign drove a deep wedge into the concept of PC brand identity. The camp became significantly divided between Morton supporters and Dinning supporters and eventually Stelmach was chosen in an effort to conserve the brand (identity).<br />
<br />
PC supporters have been so entrenched that they had difficulty dropping their identity, even if they disagreed with some of the policies or some of the leaders. But, Stelmach has been unable to heal the rifts and a global recession pushed the divisive issues to the forefront. Danielle Smith, as leader of the Wildrose Alliance Party, has subsequently been effective enough to get people to reconsider their identity. Similarly, moves by the PC party to prevent leakage on the right has caused some on the left to reconsider their identity.<br />
<br />
Much has been said that the label of "Liberal" is a political liability in Alberta. This concept has largely contributed to the rise of the Alberta Party. Many 'progressives' shy away from the Alberta Liberals because of the liability and where they once would have had a home in the PC party, they are now cautious of the increasing power of the right wing of that caucus.<br />
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So here's where we are at: the extremes of the political spectrum, represented by the NDP and WAP are solid on both identity and leadership factors. Most supporters of each camp are content and ready to fight the next election. The vast middle however features three parties that are all dealing with leadership questions, while the Albertans who support them are dealing with identity questions.<br />
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How strong is the PC identity today? Is it strong enough to keep the followers even if their choice for leader is not selected? Will those who identify as Liberals move to the Alberta or PC Party if the right leader is selected? Will they move if the wrong leader is selected - for either their party or the PC party? Will the Alberta Party be able to identify with progressives from both the PC party and the Liberal party? Will they be able to create an identity that is more than the new Liberal party? Which leader will help them to create that identity?<br />
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The Alberta political landscape is like an electric football table, where the ground is shaking and bodies are shifting around. Each person came in wearing a uniform, but that uniform may not determine which pile they will end up in. People in all three parties will watch and participate in the leadership votes, then determine whether the selected leaders will have enough impact to change their political identities.<br />
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We are in unprecedented times - the most volatile political environment Alberta has ever seen.Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-45629150738322710972011-01-11T22:46:00.000-07:002011-01-11T22:46:29.923-07:00On Being a Teacher, or Why Merit Pay Stinks.I'm taking a course on organizational theory right now and the readings have caused me to reflect on an issue that is getting a fair deal of play in education right now - <a href="http://www.nationalpost.com/Merit+based+teachers+ineffective+educators/4059738/story.html">merit pay</a> <a href="http://pcinyyc.com/2011/01/07/merit-pay-for-teachers/">for teachers</a>. There are <a href="http://www.bclocalnews.com/opinion/113305394.html">many</a> <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6XAPnuFjJc&feature=player_embedded">specific</a> <a href="http://www.teachers.ab.ca/Publications/ATA%20News/Volume-45-2010-11/Number9/Pages/QandA.aspx">arguments</a> <a href="http://thescamdog.wordpress.com/2011/01/05/merit-pay/">that can</a> <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/editorials/on-teacher-merit-pay-show-us-the-money/article1857724/">be made</a> as to why merit pay is a bad idea and doesn't work, but I am a fan of looking at things from first principles. My readings on organizational theory have helped me to consider the first principles that are at play for the people who argue in favour of merit pay.<br />
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Those who tend to argue merit pay also argue for school choice, competition, rankings and the implementation of all sorts of market reforms in the education system. Ultimately these arguments are based on a fundamental vision of education that is drastically different from mine and that of most people close to schools. The market reformers view education in terms of a factory, where the inputs are young students with little knowledge and the outputs are graduates with a vast array of knowledge. Somewhere in between there is a transformation process where teachers install knowledge into pupils. The vision is of little boys and girls sitting on an assembly line, moving forward from teacher to teacher as the workers open flap A, insert knowledge component X and apply a diagnostic scanner to ensure the component is working properly. Next station!<br />
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<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_management">Scientific Management </a>guides this style of production and requires managers to "develop precise, standard procedures for doing each job; select workers with appropriate abilities; train workers in the standard procedures; carefully plan work; and provide wage incentives to increase output" (Daft and Armstrong, 2009, p. 24). The approach was pioneered by Frederick Winslow Taylor and worked well when implemented in the Bethlehem Steel Plant in 1898 to ensure that more employees unloaded more iron and loaded more steel onto rail cars.<br />
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Forgive me for being condescending, but <b>students are not chunks of iron and plates of steel</b>. Nor are they intricately wired and extensively engineered automobiles being pieced together on an assembly line.<br />
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<i>(Interestingly, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawthorne_effect">Hawthorne Studies</a> of the late 1920s and early 30s showed that performance incentives actually had a demotivating effect, even for factory work, and that improvements to productivity were actually made through the positive treatment of employees and by listening to employees concerns and ideas. But I digress.)</i><br />
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My argument is this, students are not products moving along an assembly line and teachers are not factory installers. The work of education and of teachers is complex, variable and highly skilled. As was once described to me by a speaker whose name I forget, pilots fly a finite number of models of planes and if they don't know something about the plane there is a manual they can pull out to find the answer - students don't come with manuals. Students do however come with an infinite number of contextual variables: family, prior education, economic status, emotional aptitudes, intellectual variables, medical conditions, behaviour disorders, talents, passions, fears, hopes and dreams.<br />
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<b>The important work of teachers, done well, requires sorting through those variables to assess the needs of individual students, designing educational plans that meet those needs, implementing the plans and adapting as required, while observing multiple data sources to determine whether the outcomes are being met and what further steps need to be taken.</b><br />
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This type of work can not be boiled down into standard procedures and cannot be appropriately measured using standardized tests. Increasing teacher effectiveness is achieved not by tying a carrot to the end of a stick, but by providing teachers with the time, resources and professional freedom that is required to get the work done well. Those people who are looking for accountability should look to professional models like those in place for doctors and lawyers where the professionals are required to maintain ongoing professional development (prescribed by the individual practitioners) and the profession is given the authority to police the competency of its peers and determine whether they are fit to practice. (Interestingly, in Alberta, we are almost there.)<br />
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The <a href="http://engage.education.alberta.ca/inspiring-action/">best thing that can be done for education</a> and our students is to provide the conditions necessary to allow teachers to do their important work.<br />
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<u>References</u><br />
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Daft R. L., & Armstrong A. (2009). <i>Organization theory and design</i>. Toronto, ON: Nelson Education.Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20566110.post-84100284388510522482010-11-29T17:33:00.000-07:002010-11-29T17:33:33.007-07:00Alberta Health Services Works - Part IILast week, I commented on how Alberta Health Services works in how it has served its function for government. Today, I argue that Alberta Health Services actually works in so far as how it serves its function for patients. However I will be clear, the Capital Health Authority also worked and would have been more effective.<br />
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My primary arguments revolve around the experience of my family and my father-in-law. Unfortunately, my father-in-law suffered an injury a few weeks ago and has been under the fantastic care of the medical professionals at the University of Alberta hospital since it happened. Day after day and shift after shift, we have experienced the care of a cadre of professional, competent and compassionate doctors, nurses and other capable healthcare professionals. Unequivocally, I can say that we are blessed to have available to us a world-class outstanding free medicare system. It is first class care that achieves incredible outcomes day-after-day patient-after-patient. <br />
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Unfortunately, that system is stretched to the maximum of its capacity and it relies far <i>too</i> <i>greatly</i> on the exceptional drive, dedication and unwavering commitment of its professional public servants. Accessing the system may be difficult and the time required to wait for care is extreme - but once you get the care, you know that it is the best possible care that money can buy, and then some. And that is why I feel obliged as a citizen of Alberta to speak out and defend that system. I will not allow our healthcare system to be jeopardised by cumbersome bureaucracy or by petty politics. We need to speak out about protecting the fantastic care we have available while voicing our concerns and worries in a respectful constructive manner.<br />
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I worry about people that need to have access to the system and cannot access it in a timely manner and I worry about what will happen when any more stress gets placed on an already burdened system.<br />
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We need to move beyond cookies and promises and look at what is really required to solve the problems and deliver the service that Albertans deserve. It starts by supporting and funding the system appropriately, and it is continued by supporting and listening to the people who are at the heart of healthcare delivery.<br />
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People like Raj Sherman, frankly.Atypical Albertanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09562989471609367494noreply@blogger.com0