Monday, November 27, 2006

Another Tough Decision

So, I decided not to vote in the first ballot of the PC Leadership election, but I can still choose to vote on December 2nd. What to do?

I know for sure that I do not want Ted Morton to run this province. I was pretty scared of the leadership of Ralph Klein in 1992 (although I eventually did cut my hair, right Pikey), yet the prospects of Premier Morton scare me even more. I don't know whether I would prefer a Dinning or Stelmach win as both have their upsides. Even still, I would have to hold my nose as they both a significant amount of downsides. I think I will spend some time researching the candidates and come to a conclusion by the end of the week, although the fear of a Morton win is a great motivator.

The other thing that I think needs to be said about Morton, involves his future in Dinning's Alberta. Can you possibly see Ted Morton as a minister in Dinning's cabinet? I didn't think so. So what is to be made of Dr. Ted after he realizes he has a large ground swelling of support after a Dinning win?

I don't think it is a far stretch to think that he would jump ship to the Alberta Alliance, after all many of his 26,000 votes last weekend came from Alliance members. So consider for a moment, Dinning wins the election and Morton crosses the floor to the Alliance. With him he brings a large number of dissidents who for a long time have bit their tongue and supported Klein in the Progressive Conservative Party. Suddenly, we have a 'credible' and popular leader for the Alliance party - might make for an interesting election in the spring of 2008. A weakened PC Party with a new controversial leader, a strengthened Alliance party with a new controversial leader, and perhaps a credible Liberal party with some relative strength. Rural ridings would fluctuate between PC and Alliance, Calgary would go mostly Conservative, and Edmonton would likely go mostly Liberal (with the incumbent ND's likely holding their seats) with a split right wing.

The scene in Alberta would change with a small majority PC government, and their security in question. The exact makeup would be dependent on the number of dissidents Morton could pull over with him. We may just be on the verge of the collapse of the PC stranglehold on this province. Unfortunately for us, when Alberta switches allegiances, it often switch to the right.

But perhaps, I'm getting ahead of myself and I need to look into the candidates in the election before us.

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