Federal Election Prediction

With the 41st Canadian General Election Day arriving tomorrow, it seems that it is time for me to get my election prediction on the record.

I am predicting a Conservative minority government with the New Democratic Party holding the balance of power. At this point, those two predictions are not ground breakers, so I want to add that I see the NDP and Liberals being placed in a position where their combined seats will challenge the number of seats that the Conservatives hold - meaning that a coalition government formed by those parties would not necessarily require the formal support of the Bloc Quebecois. I am also going to predict that Elizabeth May will win her seat for the Green Parties.

Here are my predictions, by the numbers:

	Bloc	Conservative	Green	Liberal	NDP
Total Seats	30	140	1	41	96
Popular Vote	6%	36%	6%	19%	32%
Regional breakdowns
BC	--	18	1	3	14
Alberta	--	26	0	0	2
Sask/Man	--	20	0	2	6
Ontario	--	56	0	24	26
Quebec	30	9	0	3	33
Atlantic	--	10	0	9	13
Territories	--	1	0	0	2

A special thanks to this page for supplying such a great summary of the poll numbers.

Federal Election

Wow - its been well over a year. I want to try this again. I want to be more brief this time.

Stephen Harper must have been busy last night. No, not celebrating his victory. He must have been busy creating his economic plan.

Just like when I was in University, Harper left it until the last minute to create his plan for the economic crisis - or as he likes to call it the era of global economic uncertainty. He must have created it last night, or else why wouldn't he release during the campaign?

This makes me sick. Dion talks of having a plan but never talks about the details. Harper talks about taking it easy and not rocking the boat, then releases a six point plan after the election?!?! Shouldn't we be using the campaign to debate the merits of each plan and decide which one we want to carry forward with. But like Kim Campbell said, the election is no time to be discussing serious issues.

The only reason I can come up with why Harper didn't release his plan (because its not too controversial) before the election is because he actually had two plans ready to go.

That's right, one for a minority and one for a majority government.

Now, wouldn't we all like to know what he really wanted to do.